Is Inevitability a bad thing?


There’s been a lot of talk about John McCain’s latest campaign tactics to portray Barack Obama as an out-of-touch celebrity, grouse about the media following Obama on his world tour and try to get folks to react negatively to Obama’s alleged (though very untrue as it turns out) “presumptuousness.”

Maybe I’m seeing things a little different than most people but isn’t it possible that trying to convince people that Obama shouldn’t win by hitting them with messages that he is “going to win” is a pretty stupid strategy?

McCain: “Hey. Don’t vote for Obama because he’s going to win.”

Seems kind of silly to me.

Most polls include a question of that goes along the lines of “regardless of your preference, whom do you think is going to win.”  That number often turns out to be a good predictor of the actual winner.  A lot of undecideds, if it comes down to Election Day and they really haven’t thought about their choice, will go with a gut feeling.  If they don’t have a viscerally negative feeling towards either candidate, they may just go with the human instinct to back the winner.

With all of these “it seems like Obama is going to win” messages flying around already, the “backing the winner” tactic may just yield a lot of votes for the Senator from Illinois.  Politico’s Carrie Budoff Brown writes:

It wasn’t until the last week, however, that the narrative of Obama as a president-in-waiting — and perhaps getting impatient in that waiting — began reverberating beyond the inboxes of Washington operatives and journalists.

Perhaps one of the clearest indications emerged Tuesday from the world of late-night comedy, when David Letterman offered his “Top Ten Signs Barack Obama is Overconfident.” The examples included Obama proposing to change the name of Oklahoma to “Oklobama” and measuring his head for Mount Rushmore.

“When Letterman is doing ‘Top Ten’ lists about something, it has officially entered the public consciousness,” said Dan Schnur, a political analyst from the University of Southern California and the communications director in John McCain’s 2000 campaign. “And it usually stays there for a long, long time.”

Seems to me that if you want to win, then you would want people, including the media, to start pushing the idea that you’re going to win.

Then again, I’m just a caveman.  People who make much, much more money than I are making these decisions for the McCain campaign.  Can’t wait to see how it works out for them.


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One Response to “Is Inevitability a bad thing?”

  1. Simonbike Says:

    I love your blog…really. Did you already hear about water on mars? 🙂

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