If only this guy could predict lottery results this well

by

(h/t to Politico’s Ben Smith)

The Mystery Pollster at NationalJournal.com points out that one person was closer to predicting the margins of North Carolina and Indiana than anyone else and he (or she) isn’t even a pollster!

Nope.  Using a mathematical model based on past performance by each candidate in a number of different voting subgroups, the tastily pseudonymous Poblano predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 17 – which he won by 14 – and Clinton would win Indiana by 2 – which she did.

Of course, professional pollsters aren’t too happy with this in the same way that old-school baseball writers get all in a tizzy over the Sabremetricians because they don’t think it should be done that way.

Hey, using this mathematical analysis might not be a great way to tailor message and it definitely wouldn’t work in a one-day general election but I don’t see any problem with using it to play the prediction game.  Especially if you’ve got money on the line.

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