Wonder what’s going on in Indiana right now?


It’s been a few days since the campaign whirlwind finished its 6-week stop in the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and I’ve had a little time to poke around the internet to see what everyone has to say about what happened and what is going to happen next.

There’s more opinion out there about both of those questions than one person can possibly digest. Heck, The Huffington Post itself seems to have about 20 posts a day on those two subjects alone (overkill, people!)

Thankfully, I found two posts that I’ll share with you that seem to effectively synthesize the “what happened” and “what happens next.”

What do I think?

At the risk of writing something that turns out to be completely wrong, I’ll take a stab.

What happened?

Down 20 pts. early, Obama really had no place to go but up. He threw a ton of money early on into television advertising while Clinton stayed relatively quiet.  He did a well-planned 6-day swing that led to a ton of free and somewhat favorable media in local papers and on local television – aside from comments about his bowling.  With all of that he closed it to about as close as it was going to get – 4 or 5 points – and the flak over the “cling” comment caused him to give a little bit back.

By then, having inundated the state with advertising already, he wasn’t going to be able to change minds again since everything he added was of marginal value or possibly negative value given the frustration factor.  (Just give me back Biggest Loser!  I’m sick of these commercials!)

Even if he ran a perfect campaign, all Clinton would have had to do was hold serve to win by 4 or 5.

What happens next?

States in which Obama leads big will go for Obama big with little contesting by Clinton.  She’ll say that he was expected to win big the whole time in (insert state here) and that the margin shouldn’t reflect on her electability in the fall, especially since (insert state here) will probably vote for McCain in the fall anyway.

States where the race is close may go to Obama as well. If so, Clinton points to the “closeness” to say that there is still a significant amount of support for her and that it would be wrong for her to bow out before the convention and take away the choice of every person who voted for her.  Obviously if she wins those states she’ll point to the fact that the wind may be leaving Obama’s sails and that she’s the candidate with momentum.

In the end, if Obama has the popular vote and the lead among pledge delegates, I think the supers throw in behind him and send the Clinton wing of the Democratic party into its long, Senator-being and lecture-giving, retirement.


A prediction.

Now let’s see what happens.

Here’s one that I know I’ll be right about – no one is going to talk about issues or offer bold new ideas that may inspire me as much as the compressed-air car or universal, single-payer health care.


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